我国金融工程发展的市场环境与制度框架

金融工程具有对风险的规避和放大效应。金融工程的发展不仅需要强大的技术手段支持,更需要政府从制度层面进行合理配置。本文分析了金融工程在经济运行中的负面作用,根据当前我国利率、汇率市场化改革的宏观环境,并结合当前国外金融制度建设的基本特征和我国基本国情,提出了我国金融工程发展的制度框架。其中,近期制度建设构想为:加强法规制度建设,优化金融环境,严防金融欺诈;加强监管机构管理,确保其独立性和公平性;加强二级市场管理建设。远期制度建设构想为:进一步强化对产品发行人、合作投资计划、市场中介机构和行业自律等方面的制度约束。     

基于政策目标的存款利息得税的有效性分析

我国1999年开征的存款利息所得税是一次典型意义上的相机调控行为,短期内达到了预期的调控目标。但随着政策持续时间的延长,政策刚性对社会公平和经济长期增长的负面影响也在逐步增强。而且相机性财政政策仅仅是一项短期政策,不应该被长期实施。相机性政策的长期实施不仅会使短期的政策效应丧失,而且政策刚性产生的负面影响将会不断扩大。对利息所得税而言,如果不能将其纳入个人所得税改革的整体框架内统筹安排,则应考虑尽快退出。     

利率互换定价存在的障碍及解决办法

根据我国利率互换市场现状，着重分析我国利率互换定价目前存在的障碍，阐述一种可行的定价方法，通过拟合交易所国债的利率期限结构计算出远期利率代替未来浮动端的参考利率确定浮动端现金流，令利率互换固定端现金流与之相等，得出固定利率。定价结果表明本文阐述的方法能够提供一种较为有效的对利率互换定价的方法，可以作为实际交易过程中的定价参考。     

制度偏好差异与电力产业规制放松的困境--"厂网分开"引发的深层思考

本文利用“芝加哥”学派利益集团理论的基本假设，对我国电力产业内部人势力的形成、强化及其行为对市场交易的扭曲进行了详尽的分析，从而为当前电力产业规制困境的发生提出了一个基于制度偏好和企业行为的解释。结果表明，在缺乏有效规制的背景下．对自然垄断产业实施等同于一般产业的“放权让利”武改革，为利益集团的成长提供了制度条件和资金支持。由于管制权力分散在诸多的“条块”之间。“厂网分开”后也没有建立权威性的专业机构．不同利益取向的参与者之间的博弈使电力产业的规制放松陷入困境。     

Optimal portfolio choice in the bond market

We consider the Merton problem of optimal portfolio choice when the traded instruments are the set of zero-coupon bonds. Working within a Markovian Heath–Jarrow–Morton model of the interest rate term structure driven by an infinite-dimensional Wiener process, we give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal trading strategy. When there is uniqueness, we provide a characterization of the optimal portfolio as a sum of mutual funds. Furthermore, we show that a Gauss–Markov random field model proposed by Kennedy [Math. Financ. 4, 247–258(1994)] can be treated in this framework, and explicitly calculate the optimal portfolio. We show that the optimal portfolio in this case can be identified with the discontinuities of a certain function of the market parameters.     

Evidence on the efficacy of interest-rate risk disclosures by commercial banks

This paper documents evidence on the efficacy of maturity-gap disclosures of commercial banks in indicating their net interest income that is exposed to interest-rate risk. For the large sample of banks that filed call reports from 1990 to 1997, a period that includes a wide range of interest rate movements, we find that (i) one-year maturity gap measures are significantly related to the one-year- and three-years-ahead change in net interest income, (ii) fixed-rate and variable-rate instruments differ in explanatory ability, and (iii) the one-to-five-year aggregate gap measures also have some power in explaining three-year-ahead changes in net interest income. These findings hold after controlling for the ex post growth in assets as well as the amount of rate-sensitive assets and liabilities (a competing set of explanatory variables). Because the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s [Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), (1997). Disclosure of accounting policies for derivative financial instruments and derivative commodity instruments and disclosure of qualitative and quantitative information about market risk inherent in derivative financial instruments, other financial instruments, and derivative commodity instruments. Release Nos. 33-7386; 3438223; IC-22487; FR-48; International Series No. 1047; File No. S7-35-95 (January 31, 1997), Washington, DC] tabular disclosures are finer than maturity-gap data, our findings mitigate concerns about the usefulness of the SEC's market-risk-disclosure requirements. Furthermore, they suggest contrary to the claims of certain banks that the omission of prepayment and early withdrawal risk from gap measures does not totally compromise the ability of gap data to indicate interest-risk exposures.     

The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act

The JOBS Act allows certain analysts to be more involved in the IPO process, but does not relax restrictions on analyst compensation structure. We find that these analysts initiate coverage that is more optimistically biased, less accurate, and generates smaller stock market reactions. Investors purchasing shares following these initiations lose over 3% of their investment by the firm's subsequent earnings release. By contrast, issuers, analysts, and investment banks appear to benefit from this increased bias, as optimism is more positively associated with proxies for firm visibility and investment banking revenues when analysts are involved in the IPO process.     

Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo‐Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model

Increasing the inflation target in a New Keynesian (NK) model may require increasing, rather than decreasing, the nominal interest rate in the short run. We refer to this positive short‐run comovement between the nominal rates and inflation conditional on a nominal shock as Neo‐Fisherianism. We show that the NK model is more likely to be Neo‐Fisherian the more persistent is the change in the inflation target and the more flexible are prices. Neo‐Fisherianism is driven by the forward‐looking nature of the model. Modifications that make the framework less forward‐looking make it less likely for the model to exhibit Neo‐Fisherianism.     

Endogenous Money,Fiscal Policy,Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Comment on Palley,Tymoigne and Wray

One of the main collective contributions of the various heterodox schools of monetary thought, such as circuit theory, Post Keynesian theory, modern money theory (MMT) and others, has been to stress the importance of the endogeneity of money via bank credit creation. It is necessary to stress the notion of a collective contribution because of the various claims and counter-claims to academic priority made in the literature. The recent exchange between T.I. Palley and E. Tymoigne and L.R. Wray in this journal provides a clear example of this. This response examines the differences between these writers in some detail.